Decarbonization, Energy Transition, and Economic Resilience: West African Policy Directions towards Net-Zero and Sustainable Development

Abstract

This study investigates the cross-connections between decarbonization, energy transition, and economic resilience across 16 West African countries during 2000-2023. Using an integrated framework comprising an interactive fixed effect model, quantile regression, and threshold smooth transition regression, the study accommodates the multilateral impact of clean energy access and drivers of resilience on greenhouse gas emissions and carbon emissions and their economic growth implications. Emissions are found to be reduced significantly by renewable energy, while energy access and intensity contribute to environmental degradation. Economic resilience indicators—namely, fiscal and external sector stability—produce heterogeneous and non-linear impacts on emissions with fiscal cushions reducing GHG but raising CO₂ in certain situations. Threshold analysis reveals that renewable energy must reach a tipping share (88.6%) to achieve significant economic growth benefits, highlighting transitional trade-offs. Macroeconomic resilience does enhance growth consistently, specifically in higher levels of renewable deployment. The paper points out that decarbonization that is sustainable does not just require technological change but also institutional and financial alignment for avoiding the risks of emissions as well as economic disruptions. Policy recommendations advocate aligned resilience policy, environmentally conditioned investment flows, and facilitation of scaled-up renewables.