The Impact of Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors on Infant Mortality in the MENA Region: A Panel VAR Analysis Online First

Abstract

This study examines the effect of environmental and socioeconomic factors on infant mortality across nineteen MENA countries. Data from 1990 to 2021 was analyzed using the Panel Vector Auto-regression (PVAR) method. Infant mortality serves as the dependent variable, with carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, renewable energy use, healthcare spending, and urban population growth as explanatory variables. Pedroni co-integration tests indicate the lack of long-term equilibrium, which supports the use of PVAR. Additionally, impulse response functions reveal that shocks to CO₂ levels cause long-term increases in death rates, while spending on healthcare and renewable energy gradually lower death rates. Urbanization initially raises the death rate; however, its impact decreases over time. The forecast error variance decomposition indicates that changes in death rates are becoming increasingly influenced by social and economic factors. This research adds valuable insights from multiple disciplines on the factors affecting infant mortality. Specifically, CO₂ emissions, healthcare costs, renewable energy, and urbanization are the main factors influencing infant mortality in the MENA region. These results highlight the importance of policies that foster health equity, sustainable urbanization, and environmental management in the Global South.

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